CAMaraderie, The five options for tomorrow, in descending order of probability

The five options for tomorrow, in descending order of probability

Rudd doesn’t get enough votes to win but stays on the backbench and keeps sniping, launching another unsuccessful challenge later on, before Gillard takes the ALP into an election at which Labor gets decimated by the Abbott Coalition.
Rudd gets a handful of votes, gracefully stands back, probably not contesting the next election, at which Labor gets decimated by the Abbott Coalition.
Rudd doesn’t get enough votes to win, but gets enough to keep him afloat and he launches a second challenge before the election which he does win, and then the election happens at which Labor gets decimated by the Abbott Coalition.
Rudd wins the leadership, calls an election and Labor gets decimated by the Abbott Coalition.
Gillard doesn’t win by enough to keep her viable so stands down, Thatcher-like, in favour of another candidate like Crean, Smith or Shorten, who calls an election at which Labor gets decimated by the Abbott Coalition.